THURSDAY Hi 74F, mostly sunny, increasing clouds after 12p, winds S to SW to S, 8 to 7 to 18 to 14 MPH, G13 to 30 to 28 MPH after 8a
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No Weather hazards expected…
DISCUSSION…
Full sunshine early with increasing clouds after 12 PM. A gradually tightening surface pressure gradient will provide south winds across the upper Midwest and western Great lakes region. These south wind gusts will begin about 8 or 9 AM, and will become increasingly gusty to at least 30 MPH across the forecast area on Thursday. We’ll be in a wind tunnel Thursday with the High Pressure system spinning clockwise off to our east, pushing out winds from the south; and the Low Pressure system spinning counterclockwise to our west, pulling in winds from the south.
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O’HARE FORECAST …
Forecast Beginning Thursday, Nov. 03, 2022
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a south wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Friday: A chance of rain before 10am, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 71. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night: A chance of rain before 7pm, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms between 7pm and 1am, then rain and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Low around 58. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Saturday: A chance of rain and thunderstorms before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Breezy, with a southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 64.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 58.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 61.
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
333 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
.SHORT TERM…
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022
Through Friday…
Forecast focus is on unseasonably warm and breezy/windy conditions today, then continued very mild weather with increasing shower and embedded thunderstorm chances on Friday.
Early morning surface analysis depicts a broad area of elongated high pressure from New England to the lower Mississippi Valley, while a trough of low pressure stretched from western Ontario through the central Rockies. In between these features, was a gradually tightening surface pressure gradient providing south winds across the upper Midwest and western Great lakes region. These south winds will become increasingly gusty across the forecast area today, as a deep upper level trough continues to develop across the western CONUS and induces further surface pressure falls and a strengthening low level jet. By this afternoon, forecast soundings support gusts in the 30-35 mph range across much of northwest/northern IL within the stronger gradient. Further east/southeast winds will be slightly weaker but still breezy. Unseasonably warm temperatures will again be seen today, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected. This will be near record levels for Chicago today (see climate section below), though increasing afternoon high cloudiness may be a limiting factor. Record high-minimum temperatures will also be within reach tonight, as breezy winds and increasing cloud cover prevent readings from falling off too much. Temps particularly within the city of Chicago may not dip below 60 overnight, which is 5 degrees above our average highs for this time of year.
A slow moving cold front will very slowly approach the region from the west Friday, but will stall before reaching the forecast area. Shower and embedded thunderstorm chances will increase in advance of this boundary Friday morning however, as a subtle lead mid-level short wave ripples northeast across the region. Highest precip chances will be over far west/northwest parts of the forecast area during the morning through midday hours, decreasing somewhat during the afternoon hours as the wave lifts northeast of the area. Steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5+ C/km above 600 mb) will support some thunder potential, and some of these showers and thunderstorms may be gusty given 40 kt low level jet winds ~2000 feet above the ground. Farther to the southeast, rain chances will decrease fairly rapidly into east-central IL and northwest IN.
Despite more cloud cover, Friday will also be unseasonably warm with highs again expected to be in the low-mid 70s. Thicker clouds and precipitation across north/northwest IL will likely kee Preadings in the low 70s for Rockford and Chicago, with the warmest readings across our south/southeast cwa.
Ratzer/NWS Chicago
