🌒 🌓 🌕 🌗 Waxing Crescent Moon, sky cover overnight Wed. to Thu. 44% to 68% to 59%, winds SSW, 17 to 18 to 14 MPH, G30 to 32 to 20 MPH, Low 39, 12a to 1a
IMPORTANT NOTE ON NWS DATA
NIGHT FORECASTS …
NOTE 1: Forecast and information text below may refer to a previous night on Arlingtoncardinal.com, and might not be updated until late afternoon, evening, or overnight. However, Night Sky archives on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine include text forecasts that correspond to the lunar phase graphic above.
NOTE 2: Keep in mind lunar rise and set times don’t always correspond with night weather and early morning lows because on some days during the month the moon is visible in the sky predominantly during the daytime hours.
Overnight Wednesday/Thursday …
No Weather Hazards expected …
Milder temperatures on basically an increasing trend overnight all the way through Thursday on breezy southerly winds.
Southerly flow has enveloped the area and will continue through the next couple days as broad but strong low pressure develops and consolidates across the Northern Plains. This return flow is largely dry tonight.
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O’HARE FORECAST …
Forecast Beginning Wednesday Night, Dec. 28, 2022 …
Wednesday Night: A chance of drizzle after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday: A chance of drizzle before noon, then a chance of drizzle with a slight chance of rain after noon. Patchy fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 50. South southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 40. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain before noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41.
Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 34.
New Year’s Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.
Monday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49.
Monday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40.
Tuesday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 51.
O’Hare forecast archive and hourly weather observations archive are available HERE on the CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
NIGHT SKY THIS MONTH …
Check the night sky objects for this month and past months in the playlist from the Space Telescope Science Institute YouTube channel Backyard stargazers get a monthly guide to the northern hemisphere’s skywatching events with “Tonight’s Sky” (Musical track The Far River written by Jonn Serrie, from the album And the Stars Go With You courtesy of New World Music Ltd. Musical track The Far River written by Jonn Serrie, from the album And the Stars Go With You courtesy of New World Music Ltd).
Telephoto lens, ISO 100, f/11, Shutter Speed 1/100 to 1/125 for the Moon.
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Telephoto lens, ISO 1600, f/11, Shutter Speed 2.5″ for the skyline. The skyline exposure was toned down, and brightness and contrast was adjusted in Photoshop.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
253 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022
.SHORT TERM… Issued at 253 AM CST Thu Dec 29 2022
Through Friday night…
Unseasonably mild night underway with temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s at 2 AM. While it is unusual to be this mild in the middle of the night in late December, what makes tonight`s temps truly noteworthy is that just 6 nights at this time temps were between -7F to -11F across our CWA with wind chills nearing -40F! Would like to take a moment to touch on this stunning turnaround. If our forecast high for ORD verifies today, it will be a 59 degree warm up from last Friday`s low of -8F. Dating back to 1871, a 59 degree warm up in the span of 6 days would tie for 129th place, which may not sound very impressive, but that is compared to nearly 55,000 other 6 day periods. So just 0.23% of all 6 day periods in Chicago have seen a more dramatic warm up than the one we are about to experience. One last statistic, last week on the hourly observations Chicago reached a wind chill as low as -34F at ORD, which if we reach 57F today, that would be a 91F increase in the apparent temperature! Finally, see climate section for note on records threatened today.
Back to the short term forecast…
As has been discussed the past couple of short term AFDs, the GFS and NAM have been handling the snow cover poorly. The warmth the past 18 hours has absolutely decimated the snow cover here and points south. The HRRR continues to excel and has correctly initialized this zero snow cover. Guidance is often overly aggressive in WAA stratus and the phantom snow cover in the NAM and GFS are likely making that worse. Low level moisture is streaming north and stratus has begun to develop downstate, and I do anticipate stratus developing quickly north into our CWA this morning, particularly eastern 1/2 to 2/3 of the area. Given its superior snow cover initialization and its tendency to excel in 2m temp forecasts during extremes, have gone just about all in with the HRRR for today. Now have highs ranging from the mid 50s northern Chicago suburbs to around 60 southern CWA. HRRR has continued to show stratus quickly expanding north and then clearing from the west during the day and given the upstream and satellite trends now, hard to dispute the idea that stratus will clear from the west this afternoon.
Cold front is still slated to move across the area tonight with band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm developing over northern IL during the evening as the front encounters the better moisture. By later this afternoon into this evening, look for dewpoints over most of the CWA to be in the 50s, which will feel almost humid after the recent barbaric cold.
Cold front is progged to stall or slow to a crawl just east of the CWA Friday as another low amplitude shortwave trough ejects out of the western long wave trough. ECMWF is strongest with this shortwave and has a more pronounced surface wave riding up the front and throwing rain as far west as about I-55 in our CWA Friday afternoon and Friday night. Remaining guidance is farther east and just clips our NW IN counties with some rain Friday night. Have a pretty sharp pop gradient from I-55 to NW IN to account for this uncertainty.
Behind the front, temps will be much cooler Friday, with daytime temps mostly in the mid-upper 30s. While this will be around 20F colder than Thursday, it is still a bit above average for late Dec and nearly 40F warmer than daytime temps were last Friday.
– Izzi/NWS Chicago