Thursday Hi 32, mostly sunny, increasing clouds after 10a, winds SW to W to NW, 13 to 16 to 13 MPH, G20 to 23 to 21 MPH, 2p through 12a
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Thursday and Thursday Night …
Weather Hazards expected …
Elevated Excessive Cold Risk.
Wind Chill Advisory issued February 02 at 10:13AM CST until February 03 at 10:00AM CST by NWS: …WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY… * WHAT…Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 25 below zero. * WHERE…Portions of north central and northeast Illinois. * WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday.
Limited Ice Jam Flooding Risk (The highest threat of ice jams is on the Rock, Fox, and Kankakee rivers).
DISCUSSION…
High 32°F, but then a cold front begins to invade just after 1:00 p.m. Thursday. Wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero are expected Friday morning. The coldest conditions in Chicagoland are expected across northern Illinois outside of Chicago, but the brunt of the cold air will actually remain well north and northeast of Chicagoland Thursday and Friday, but even getting sideswiped by this powerful lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex will pack a formidable cold punch.
Daily low temperatures and daily high temperatures are on the way up. We’re gaining about 2 minutes of daylight every day in the progression toward vernal equinox, March 20, 2023.
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O’HARE FORECAST …
Forecast Beginning Thursday, Feb. 02, 2023
Thursday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 33. West southwest wind around 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around -5. Wind chill values as low as -19. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday: Sunny and cold, with a high near 9. Wind chill values as low as -21. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 4. Wind chill values as low as -6. South wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 35. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Breezy.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 43.
Monday Night: Cloudy, with a low around 37.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Wednesday: A chance of rain. Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
522 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
.SHORT TERM… Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023
Through Friday…
A brief, but potent shot of very cold air will bring dangerous wind chills to northern Illinois late tonight into Friday morning.
Before the cold, one more relatively mild day is on tap for today. Have bumped temps up a bit, particularly far the southern CWA where little to no snow remains. Anticipate a large range in high temps today from the low/mid 40s far south to the upper 20s/near 30 over the deepest snowpack near the WI border. Arctic cold front will enter northern IL late this afternoon, likely resulting in temps falling across far north prior to sunset.
The brunt of the cold air will actually remain well north and northeast of our area tonight and Friday, but even get sideswiped by this powerful lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex will pack a formidable cold punch. Both the GFS and ECMWF have lows at or just below -10F across most of our northern CWA early Friday morning. Backwards trajectories show our air mass early Friday morning is originating from around Lake Winnipeg, where current temps are in the teens to around 20 below zero. Have trended our forecast lows colder for late tonight into Friday morning, close to, but not quite as cold as the GFS/ECMWF. It is worth noting the GFS/ECMWF performed quite well with the bitter cold temps a couple of nights ago.
Strongest winds tonight will likely be this evening, but even if winds diminish to around 10 mph across northern Illinois after midnight as forecast, that`s still is enough wind to push wind chills down into the 20 to 25 below zero range. For this reason, have coordinated the issuance of a wind chill advisory for late tonight into Friday morning with MKX and DVN for these dangerous wind chills.
Center of the Arctic high will move overhead Friday afternoon, resulting in winds diminishing further Friday morning and likely becoming light and variable Friday afternoon. Decreasing winds and slowly rising temperature should allow wind chills to “warm” above advisory criteria (-20F) by mid morning, though air temps over the deeper snowpack may struggle to even reach zero by noon Friday!
Have maintained some slight chance pops for snow showers over far northeast Porter County Friday morning, but it would appear the best chances of any accumulating lake effect snow will remain east of our CWA.
– Izzi/NWS Chicago
