Tuesday Hi 53, mostly cloudy, chance showers after 7p, winds SW to S, 8 to 14 MPH, G15 to 23 MPH continuing Wednesday
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Tuesday and Tuesday Evening …
No Weather Hazards expected …
Showers develop late this afternoon/evening, diminishing to patchy light rain/drizzle late overnight and early Wednesday.
DISCUSSION…
High level cloud cover will continue to increase this morning as a pair of low-amplitude short waves track into the area on west- southwest flow aloft. Low level moisture return has been limited by a large area of surface high pressure over the southeastern states over the last couple of days, though moisture will begin to increase from the southwest this afternoon as the high continues to shift off to the east.
Vernal Equinox was Monday, March 20, 2023 4:24 PM. Tuesday is the first full day of Spring.
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O’HARE FORECAST …
Forecast Beginning Tuesday, Mar. 21, 2023
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. South wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers, mainly before midnight, then a slight chance of rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 40. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday: A slight chance of rain before 1pm, then showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 54. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night: Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10pm. Low around 43. South wind around 5 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Friday: A 30 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.
Friday Night: A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 51.
Sunday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.
Monday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.
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SUNLIGHT DATA FOR SECURITY, TRAFFIC SAFETY, AND SPORTS
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NIGHT SKY THIS MONTH …
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
655 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023
.SHORT TERM… Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023
Through Wednesday night…
Main short term weather messages:
* Showers develop late this afternoon/evening, diminishing to patchy light rain/drizzle late overnight and early Wednesday.
* Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
* Temperatures in the 50s both today and Wednesday, then a cold front moves into the area Wednesday night.
High level cloud cover will continue to increase this morning as a pair of low-amplitude short waves track into the area on west- southwest flow aloft. Low level moisture return has been limited by a large area of surface high pressure over the southeastern states over the last couple of days, though moisture will begin to increase from the southwest this afternoon as the high continues to shift off to the east. Guidance is in good agreement in developing an area of showers late this afternoon ahead of the second of the aforementioned waves, and these should persist into this evening especially across the southern 2/3 or so of the forecast area. The mid level trough axis is progged to shift east of the area after midnight, and with forecast soundings indicating drying of the mid- levels this should result in precipitation diminishing to just patchy light rain or drizzle overnight into Wednesday morning.
On Wednesday, a 140 kt upper level jet is forecast to spread northeast ahead of an upper trough over the southwestern CONUS. A surface low pressure wave is expected to develop in response, along a cold front stretching from the upper Midwest to the Central Plains. An attendant increase in southwesterly low level flow (850 mb jet increases to 50 kts into the region Wednesday evening) will ramp up warm advection and moisture transport into the area, and stronger mid-level flow and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely support an increase in elevated convective showers and some thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night when the surface low pressure wave and cold front move slowly across the forecast area. While better chances for severe weather look to be just off to the southwest of the cwa (see SPC day 2 marginal outlook across MO/IA and western IL) Small hail and locally heavy downpours will be possible with these storms.
Despite increasing and thickening cloud cover, temperatures are expected to reach the lower 50s again today (though a slight southeast component may keep the immediate IL Lake Michigan shore a bit cooler north of the city) and the mid and upper 50s Wednesday. Overnight lows will be rather mild, especially Wednesday night with temperatures likely holding in the 50s across the southern half of the cwa ahead of the surface wave and cold front.
Ratzer/NWS Chicago
